Draft Express is reporting that this year’s NBA pre-draft camp will be May 27-June 3 in Orlando, Florida. Individual team workouts would follow the camp. Players who do not hire agents (for UNC, that would be Ty Lawson, Danny Green and Wayne Ellington) have until June 16 to take their names out of the draft pool and return to play at UNC. Otherwise, they remain in the draft and forfeit their NCAA eligibility.

Here’s what you can bank on: Any of the three UNC players not invited to the pre-draft camp should (and, they would be crazy not to) immediately take his name out of the draft and return to UNC. My guess is that Danny Green is not going to get an invitation to Orlando, meaning he’ll have no chance to improve his stock before the draft. And, as of now, most serious mock drafts do not even list him in the first or second round.

I think Ty Lawson will, for sure, be invited to the camp. I am also quite confident Wayne Ellington will, also. Both have moved far down the draft board (Lawson either very late first round or early second round; and Ellington early to mid-second round). Both need to improve their stock drastically at the Orlando camp in order to feel comfortable enough staying in the draft. Remember, only first-rounders get guaranteed contracts, so it’s basically pointless for talented players such as Lawson, Ellington or Green to stay in the draft if all indications are that they won’t be first-rounders. But I’ve seen crazier things happen. Let’s hope these guys are reading the tea leaves.

I will post the rosters for the pre-draft camp when I see them. They usually are not released until a few days before the camp, although the players who are invited generally know a few weeks ahead of time. Some news regarding who was invited might trickle out before the official release.

An editorial note: I think, at this point, that it is wise for Danny Green to realize that the cards are not falling his way right now and that he should remove his name from the draft as soon as he finds out he’s not invited to Orlando – if that’s the case. If his father keeps pushing  him to stay in the draft after a non-invite, that would be simply horrible for Danny. I think the 2008-09 season could move Danny easily into the first round of next year’s draft. As for Lawson and Ellington: They, too, should undeclare if they don’t get Orlando invites, but, as I said, I expect at least Lawson will, and Ellington should.

In addition to the hundreds of college seniors available to be drafted, there are 69 early declarees and a bunch of foreign players and former college players available. Seriously, this draft pool is not looking to be in the favor of any of the UNC players. Come back next year and try again.

Man, I would have liked to have seen him in Tar Heel blue.

http://www.wral.com/news/local/politics/video/2808897/

These links are to stories about incoming freshmen Tyler Zeller, Ed Davis and Larry Drew:

ZELLER LINKS
PROFILE: http://northcarolina.scout.com/a.z?s=78&p=9&c=2&cid=747990&nid=2655607&fhn=1&ssf=1&RequestedURL=http%3a%2f%2fnorthcarolina.scout.com%2fa.z%3fs%3d78%26p%3d9%26c%3d2%26cid%3d747990%26nid%3d2655607%26fhn%3d1

VIDEO: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tIQZS7nBp8Q

STORY (see the links on this linked page): http://insider.espn.go.com/ncb/recruiting/tracker/player?recruitId=42797&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fncb%2frecruiting%2ftracker%2fplayer%3frecruitId%3d42797

VIDEO: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFnKFcljcK0

DAVIS LINKS
VIDEO: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmF1v7BTb10&feature=related

PROFILE: http://scouthoops.scout.com/a.z?s=75&p=8&c=1&nid=2325311

STORY (see the links on this linked page):  http://insider.espn.go.com/ncb/recruiting/tracker/player?page=briefingroom&recruitId=42906&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fncb%2frecruiting%2ftracker%2fplayer%3fpage%3dbriefingroom%26recruitId%3d42906

VIDEO: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JcPRs1eVvus

DREW LINKS
PROFILE: http://scouthoops.scout.com/a.z?s=75&p=8&c=1&nid=1768420

VIDEO: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3pbfy3nEcIs

STORY: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/arash_markazi/01/14/larry.drew/index.html

Well, not the school, but to the state. Brown, who has led an NBA team (Detroit) to a championship and a college team (Kansas) to an NCAA title has been hired to coach the Charlotte Bobcats.

The former player under Dean Smith has had many coaching stints, but this could prove to be just the right place for Brown. He won’t have too many egos to deal with on the mostly young Bobcats squad, which, after returning several players from injury next season, could be primed for its first playoff run.

How Brown will work under Michael Jordan with the Bobcats is unknown. While Jordan was a great NBA player, he’s had a pretty horrible run in NBA management. But the Carolina ties are strong, and this might just work out.

Check out the story here: http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=3373585

UNC fans will have plenty of reasons to tune in to Bobcats games next season with Larry Brown coaching, and Sean May and Raymond Felton playing. Who knows what other UNC players might be on the team following the draft and other signings. Jeff McGinnis was on the team for a few months toward the late-middle to early end of the season.

Read EPSN’s story here: http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs2008/news/story?id=3372615

http://tarheelfan.wordpress.com/2008/04/27/statements-from-greens-father-and-roy/

Besides those you can find on ESPN and other sites, here are some others:

http://www.dcprosportsreport.com/NBAMocks.htm

It doesn’t surprise me that Danny Green has declared for the NBA draft. Apparently, “testing the waters” has become the “in” thing to do these days. But Green isn’t diving straight in. Like Wayne Ellington and Ty Lawson, he’s not hiring an agent, leaving open the possibility that he could return to UNC this fall.

Green has the full package the NBA is looking for. You might ask, “If that’s the case, why isn’t he starting for UNC?” Well, that’s complicated. What is attractive to NBA scouts is not necessarily the same thing that’s attractive to college coaches.

Green has a tremendous upside to his game. He has a full range of abilities, with few weaknesses. He can block shots, he’s athletic, he can drive hard to the basket, but also pull up and consistently hit 3-pointers. Offensively and defensively, he is solid. But NBA scouts think we haven’t seen everything yet from Green … that he has plenty more to offer.

With Lawson and Ellington, most scouts think they are seeing just what they will get. With Green, they will think he has plenty of room to grow and might just be more attractive than Lawson or Ellington. It would not surprise me that by pre-draft camps Green has higher stock than both Lawson and Ellington.

Now, for the criticism. It’s very sad that Green did not engage the UNC coaching staff in the full process, as did Tyler Hansbrough (who is returning) and Lawson and Ellington. It seems Danny’s father, who has been in prison, is driving his son’s decisions. Is that really what’s best for Danny? … That his father is running as his unhired agent in doing his bidding for him? No.

I would find it highly unlikely that the UNC coaching staff would have refused to shop Green to scouts the way they did with the other three, leaving the only conclusion that Green’s father ran the whole show. At this point, as much as I like Green and his game, I kind of hope he stays in the draft. It worries me that his decision not to engage the UNC staff in this decision – he informed the school of his private decision with his father – is going to make Green seem like he’s not a team player if he returns next season. It worries me that Green’s father will be seen as an opportunist using his son to better his life.

I have no problem with Green testing the NBA waters. As I said in an earlier blog, why shouldn’t someone with talent see what options are out there. It’s the way he did it that bothers me, and it kind of stings as a UNC fan to know that Green and his father couldn’t get together with the UNC staff like the other three families and work out a gameplan for shopping him to the pro scouts.

I think Green will be a solid NBA player. In fact, I think he has more of a chance to succeed in the NBA as Tyler, Ty and Wayne. But there’s a right and wrong way to do this. Danny chose the wrong way. I’m sure he’ll get the support of Roy Williams, but I’m also sure Roy would have liked to have seen it handled differently.

OK. So let’s just assume that both Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington actually stay in the NBA draft and don’t return to school. I don’t think that will happen, but let’s assume the worst. What are UNC’s chances of making it back to the Final Four without them?

Well, first off, I think Danny Green will step in and do an excellent job replacing Ellington. It will be a bit of a different role for Danny. He doesn’t have as quick of a release on his jump shot, and he’s quite streaky with his 3-pointers, but Green adds a lot more to the lineup when he’s in the game. His defense is superb. He’s a great shot-blocker and has some nice moves around the basket. He’s good at tipping missed shots and keeping the ball alive. Danny can make enough outside shots to keep the defense from totally collapsing on Tyler Hansbrough.

The return of Bobby Frasor from injury will be huge. He’s no Ty Lawson, but he’s a smart player who can make outside shots. I think you are going to see two types of games next year: a more halfcourt game when Frasor is running the point, and a more running style when freshman Larry Drew is backing him up.

Don’t know if you’ve had a chance to see Tyler Zeller, Ed Davis or Larry Drew, but they are some superb freshmen. I’ve seen Davis a few times, and I haven’t been incredibly impressed. Drew can grow into a good player, while it is a crapshoot to tell if Zeller’s prep stardom will translate into major college success. Don’t expect him to be another Tyler Hansbrough. But when he enters the game and plays alongside Hansbrough, he could add a low-post presence (because of his size, 6-11) that might take some pressure off Hansbrough and give him more of a chance to explore his shooting range.

Zeller has tradition on his side, coming from Indiana, and he did quite well for himself there. He’s fared well in prep tournaments. Davis is going to offer some good minutes off the bench, as will Drew (all three of the freshmen were McDonald’s All-Americans).

Your starting lineup will be: Frasor (PG); Marcus Ginyard (wing); Green (SF/wing); Hansbrough (PF); Deon Thompson (C/F).
Drew will spell Frasor; Alex Stephenson will give a breather to Hansbrough; and Zeller and Davis will spend time in the blocks for Thompson – depending on whether it will be a small or large lineup.
I think if Will Graves continues to improve, he could provide a lift off the bench that will be missing from Green being in the starting lineup. Mike Copeland could see more minutes if the freshmen don’t produce.

Even without Lawson and Ellington, the Tar Heels will be pretty strong. I think they will again be supreme in the ACC, although they won’t be the type of team Roy Williams likes. Unless Drew shows phenomenal development, I doubt he will have the major impact in a controlled up-tempo style like what Lawson and Raymond Felton have provided in recent years. Plus, Frasor brings some intangible to the lineup that’s hard to explain. The biggest problem with the starting lineup is that there’s not a lot of offensive firepower. Green can be explosive at times, but he and Ginyard are both strongest on defense. Frasor is defense first, offense second, which leaves the bulk of the load on the front court, and that could mean a lot of double and triple teams on Hansbrough. If he doesn’t have consistent 3-point shooters to kick out to, he’s going to be swamped with defenders. The development of a serious and consistent 3-point threat is a major concern for next season’s team.

Can UNC win the national title without Lawson and Ellington? It’s possible. But, as we all know, if Lawson and Ellington return, UNC will be the heavy favorite as the No. 1 team. The problem here is that you will have an overload of talent. This reminds me of years when UNC had maybe too much talent on a team that there just weren’t enough minutes to go around. That meant teams that didn’t quite gel. Those teams would be: 1994-95 (adding Rasheed and Stackhouse to a nearly intact returning roster that won the 1993 championship); and 1984 (Kenny Smith, Jordan, Perkins, Brad Daugherty and Matt Doherty, etc.). Both of those teams should have won national titles, but there simply was too much talent.

Certainly more pressure will be on UNC if Lawson and Ellington return, but then there will be less pressure on the newcomers to perform early. But these days freshman are very ready to step into big roles, and pretty much expect to, so that point may not be that valid.

The keys if Lawson and Ellington do not return will be:
- Can Hansbrough extend his game to possibly include 3-pointers?
- How will Danny Green handle the starter role?
- Can Roy adapt his team to more of a half-court game under PG Frasor?
- How much will the freshmen contribute?
- Will Stepheson and Thompson continue their improvement?
- How good is Tyler Zeller?
- Will Ginyard’s offense improve enough to keep Roy from weighing his defensive assets against his offensive liabilities?

Only seven months, and we’ll know …